The headline from Statistics Canada's September 23 release was the slowest population growth in generations. The detail that matters most for rental housing was further down: the number of people in their 20s fell by 154,973 in a single year.[1]
Young adults are the core of rental demand, especially for studios and one-bedroom apartments in big cities. A drop of that size in one year is unusual, and it comes almost entirely from changes in immigration.
The headline numbers
StatCan estimates Canada's population at 41,798,407 on July 1, 2026, up 189,425, or 0.5%, from a year earlier.[1] That was the smallest July-to-July increase in total numbers since 1944/1945, and the lowest growth rate since 1915/1916. Growth in the second quarter alone was 80,343, or 0.2%, the weakest second quarter since 2020.[1]
The three biggest provinces grew more slowly than the country overall: Ontario by 0.3%, Quebec by 0.2% and British Columbia by 0.1%. StatCan notes these provinces typically receive the largest share of international migrants, so they feel changes in migration most. Alberta grew fastest, at 1.5%.[1]
The temporary resident decline
The number of non-permanent residents, people in Canada on work or study permits or as asylum claimants, fell by 154,614 over the year to 2,779,774. That's 6.7% of the population, down from a peak of 2,984,285, or 7.2%, on October 1, 2024. StatCan says it was the largest annual drop since comparable records began in 1971/1972.[1]
The biggest declines were among study permit holders, down 140,827, and people holding both work and study permits, down 81,163.[1] In the second quarter, non-permanent residents fell by another 18,875, and the number of asylum claimants and related groups fell for the first time since early 2022, by 7,015.[1]
Permanent immigration also slowed. Canada admitted 368,224 new immigrants in the year to July 1, the first time below 400,000 since 2021/2022 and in line with lower federal targets.[1]
Where the decline shows up by age
The age data turns these flows into something landlords can use. In the past year:[1]
- People aged 20 to 24 fell by 63,838, or 2.4%.
- People aged 25 to 29 fell by 91,135, or 3.1%.
- Altogether, the population in their 20s dropped by 154,973, or 2.8%.
StatCan links this directly to the drop in international students, who tend to be young adults. The median age rose to 40.9 years and the average to 42.1, resuming the long-term aging trend that was interrupted by the immigration surge of 2021 to 2024.[1]
Why it matters for rental demand
The surge in temporary residents from 2021 to 2024 was concentrated in exactly the groups most likely to rent: students and young workers, often sharing units near campuses, transit and city centres. The reversal is concentrated in the same places. For Ontario rental owners, that points to a few areas of exposure:
- Student-heavy submarkets. Areas near colleges and universities that relied on international enrolment are likely to feel the decline most.
- Small units. Studios and one-bedrooms, the typical first rental for young newcomers, face the most direct loss of demand. Rentals.ca data for July already showed studio condo rents falling faster than any other segment.[3]
- Shared housing. Room rentals and shared units, which absorbed much of the student surge, may see the sharpest changes, though these are less visible in official rental surveys.
Family-sized units and buildings aimed at older renters are less exposed to this particular shift.
A note on the revisions
This release also revised the non-permanent resident estimates back to July 2021. StatCan added two adjustments: one using Canada Border Services Agency entry and exit data to estimate how many permit holders left before their permits expired, and another to account for people waiting in Canada for permit extensions.[1][2] Analysts comparing this release with older figures should use the revised series rather than mixing vintages.
What comes next
The next big input is the federal immigration levels plan for 2027 to 2029, due by November 1. It will show whether the reduction in temporary residents continues at the same pace. For now, the July 1 estimates confirm that Ontario's slowest population growth in decades is coming from the youngest, most rental-heavy part of the population. Underwriting that assumes the demand of 2023 is no longer matching the people actually arriving.
Sources
[1] Canada's population estimates: Age and gender, 2026, Statistics Canada, The Daily (Sept. 23, 2026): https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260923/dq260923a-eng.htm
[2] Canada's population estimates, second quarter 2026, Statistics Canada, The Daily (Sept. 23, 2026): https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260923/dq260923b-eng.htm
[3] National Rent Declines Slow as Toronto Shows Signs of Turnaround as Supply Tightens, Rentals.ca and Urbanation (Aug. 6, 2026): https://press.rentals.ca/467345-national-rent-declines-slow-as-toronto-shows-signs-of-turnaround-as-supply-tightens