In an interview with The New York Times on September 23, Prime Minister Mark Carney said that with the immigration system back under control, the question is now when to resume what he called a controlled increase in Canada's population. The comments were widely reported at the end of September, about a month before the government must publish its 2027-2029 immigration levels plan.[1]

The minister's office has said the coming plan will keep immigration at sustainable levels, and no new targets have been announced.[1] So for now, the Prime Minister's remarks are a signal about direction, not a policy change. But for anyone forecasting rental demand in Ontario, the plan due by November 1 is one of the most important documents of the year. These are the four numbers worth looking at first.

1. The permanent resident target

The current 2026-2028 plan sets permanent resident admissions at 380,000 in each of the three years.[2] The new plan will confirm or change 2027 and 2028 and add 2029.

Permanent residents form households that rent first and often buy later, so this number drives long-run housing demand. It also sets expectations for Ontario, which has historically received the largest share of new immigrants. A C.D. Howe Institute advisory council has recommended gradually lower levels of 380,000 in 2027, 350,000 in 2028 and 340,000 in 2029, according to reporting summarized by GenesisLink.[1]

2. The temporary resident arrivals target

This is the number with the most direct impact on near-term rental demand. The 2026-2028 plan targets 385,000 new temporary resident arrivals in 2026 and 370,000 in each of 2027 and 2028. The 2026 target is split into 230,000 workers and 155,000 students, falling to 220,000 workers and 150,000 students in later years.[2]

Temporary residents tend to be young, to rent, and to cluster near campuses and job centres. Statistics Canada's latest estimates show the impact of the cuts so far: non-permanent residents fell by 154,614 in the year to July 1, and the number of people in their 20s fell by 154,973.[3] Any change to the student target in particular would show up quickly in rental markets near Ontario colleges and universities.

3. The path to a 5% non-permanent share

The government's stated goal is to bring the temporary population below 5% of the total by the end of 2027.[2] StatCan put the share at 6.7% on July 1, 2026, down from a peak of 7.2% in October 2024.[3]

Getting from 6.7% to 5% in about 18 months would require temporary resident outflows, through departures or transitions to permanent status, to keep far exceeding arrivals. Economist Mikal Skuterud, a member of the C.D. Howe council, has noted that the current share makes the target difficult to reach.[1] The levels plan will show whether the government keeps the deadline, extends it, or relies more on transitions to permanent residence. Each option has different implications for rental demand: departures remove renters from the market, while transitions to permanent status keep them in place.

4. Allocation by stream and region

Headline totals can hide the details that matter most for Ontario. Two allocation questions are worth watching:

  • Economic versus other classes. Economic immigrants are often already in Canada on temporary permits. A higher share drawn from people already here means less new demand than the headline suggests.
  • Provincial nominee allocations. Ontario's share of provincial nominee spaces affects how many newcomers settle in the province rather than elsewhere.

For reference, the current plan puts the economic category at 64% of admissions in 2027 and 2028, sets Provincial Nominee Program admissions at 91,500 in 2026 and 92,500 in each of the next two years, and adds one-time measures outside the main targets to move about 115,000 protected persons and up to 33,000 temporary workers to permanent status.[2] Measures like these change people's status without adding new arrivals, which matters for how much new housing demand a given target creates.

Reading the plan without over-reading it

A few cautions apply when the plan comes out:

  1. Targets are not arrivals. Processing times, permit expiry and departures mean actual flows can differ from targets.
  2. Temporary flows are harder to steer. Many temporary resident programs respond to demand from employers and schools, and actual numbers depend on policy details beyond the plan itself.
  3. Ontario's share varies. National targets don't divide evenly across provinces. Ontario's population grew just 0.3% in the year to July 1, slower than the national 0.5%, partly because it is more exposed to changes in international migration.[3]

The plan is legally due by November 1, which falls on a Sunday this year.[1] Until it's published, the useful work is setting up scenarios: one where targets stay flat, one with a gradual increase as the Prime Minister has hinted, and one with further cuts. Ontario rental underwriting for 2027 and beyond will depend on which of those the plan resembles.

Sources

[1] Carney Signals a "Controlled Increase" in Population Ahead of the 2027-2029 Levels Plan, GenesisLink (Sept. 30, 2026): https://www.genesislink.ca/insights/news/carney-controlled-population-increase-levels-plan-2027-2029

[2] Supplementary Information for the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/immigration-system/levels/supplementary-immigration-levels-2026-2028.html

[3] Canada's population estimates: Age and gender, 2026, Statistics Canada, The Daily (Sept. 23, 2026): https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260923/dq260923a-eng.htm