For most of the last decade, the most sought-after apartment deal in Canada was a new purpose-built tower full of amenities. At the Canadian Apartment Investment Conference in Toronto on September 9, a panel of brokers from across the country described a shift back toward older buildings, and toward buying rather than building.[1]

RBC Capital Markets managing director Nurit Altman opened the discussion by noting how unexpected the past two years had been. Multifamily had long been the most stable asset class, she said, which is why the industry was caught off guard when fundamentals started to weaken in 2024 and 2025. Rising availability and falling rents followed changes in immigration policy and a surge of new supply. What interested her was that markets have experienced the downturn on different timelines.[1]

Here is how the panel described each market, followed by what it suggests for Ontario.

Toronto: turning, with institutions returning

JLL's Michael Betsalel, who leads the firm's Ontario multifamily team, said Toronto rents are lower than in 2025 but have risen since the first quarter of 2026. Vacancy has fallen since the first quarter. Cap rates and transaction volume have both increased over the past year.[1]

"There's been a rotation back to value-add from new purpose-built rental," he said, adding that there is a large pool of private capital and returning institutional demand.[1] Altman said some Canadian institutions that had been developing have found it so difficult that they now see buying new product at close to replacement cost as the better option.[1]

Betsalel also said the most successful developments are those that add density to existing sites, where the land is already owned and there are economies of scale.[1]

Montreal: liquidity-driven

PMML's Thierry Samlal said Montreal vacancy rose from 1.5% to 2.9% in six months, but building prices have risen slightly, transaction volume is up 25.4% and cap rates have compressed. Private groups have plenty of capital, and succession and generational-transfer deals are adding to activity.[1]

Buyers want value-add buildings and anything built after 2017. Samlal described it as both a flight to quality and a flight to the ability to raise rents.[1]

Vancouver: reset, and back to older stock

Goodman Commercial's Mark Goodman described the sharpest correction. Rents are still falling and vacancy is at a 20-year high. Dollar volume in the first half was down 35% from a year earlier and about 61% below the ten-year average, though the number of transactions rose 19%.[1]

Buyers have moved back to older, smaller wood-frame buildings. The average building sold in the first half had 26 units and sold for about $9 million, and no deal had reached $30 million.[1] Goodman said the problem isn't a lack of demand for new towers but that owners won't sell below replacement cost. He estimated values have fallen 35% to 45% in three years.[1]

Calgary and Edmonton: equity coming in

Avison Young's Brandon Imada said rents are down and vacancy is up in both Alberta cities, while cap rates have held steady. Those markets have relied heavily on high-leverage CMHC MLI Select financing, but the past year has brought more deals with higher equity, which he welcomed. Development is still feasible, he said, but underwriting is stricter and exit assumptions more conservative.[1]

What it suggests for Ontario

Putting the four markets side by side shows a few patterns that matter for Ontario owners and lenders:

  1. Replacement cost is setting the floor. In both Toronto and Vancouver, the argument for buying existing buildings comes down to price compared with the cost of building new. That works as long as construction costs stay high.
  2. Value-add is back, but defined differently. In Toronto, it now includes newer buildings bought below replacement cost, not just older stock that needs renovation.
  3. Capital is plentiful but selective. Private capital is active in every market discussed. It is concentrating in the right asset at the right price rather than spreading broadly.
  4. Density on owned land is the development sweet spot. Building on sites an owner already controls avoids paying today's land prices.

The panel's overall message was not that development is finished, but that the risk-reward balance has shifted toward existing assets for now. For Ontario, where Toronto appears to be ahead of Vancouver in the cycle, the next question is how long that window stays open before construction restarts.

Sources

[1] CAIC: How value-add capital is reshaping Canadian multifamily, RENX (Sept. 15, 2026): https://renx.ca/apartment-markets-vary-in-canadas-major-cities